For those who don’t know what the Rosetta Stone is, it’s a tablet found in 1799 that greatly assisted the translation of ancient Egyptian Hieroglyphs [subsequently] to every modern language.

So why do I use this as an analogy for non-cash payments?

Hieroglyphs​ had puzzled scholars for centuries until the Rosetta Stone unlocked them enough for the translation to move forward to completion. Having a software PIN will effect the exact same unlocking of the transition of non-cash payments from plastic to mobile. We have had payment cards for 60+ years, with nothing in that time anywhere near ubiquitous enough to disrupt them​, now ​we do. And while mobile devices are in no way perfect, and in many ways even less secure than payment card, ​they ​​are​ already far more prevalent​. ​Despite all ​of mobiles’s flaws, they ​are being used ​today as a payment medium​, a trend that will continue until plastic is replaced completely (at least in its current form).​

Th​ere are too many reasons​ for the continuity​ to go into​ here​ (sheer functionality being the top one), but it has been slow because until now every mobile payment innovation was just a little too much for people to accept, just a smidge too radical to gain the necessary momentum.

This is probably because none of those innovations kept the most widely used of the authentication mechanisms in the world; the PIN. The enormously complex and expensive chip & PIN (EMV) used for credit cards is accepted globally (if they can afford it), but up till now there has been no way to effect an acceptable level of security on a device that is never going to be as secure as a system built for purpose.

But ‘as secure’ is not the point, ‘secure enough’ is. You’re not fighting for perfection and zero loss through theft, you’re fighting for making it too difficult for thieves to bother. This can only be effected by layers of security, the so-called defence-in-depth. EMV put all of its security controls into a single factor (they had no choice), but mobile devices have access to numerous – and ever expanding – options:

  1. Geolocation/Geofencing: Whatever you want to call it, and whatever buzz phrases vendors will come up with next, they all mean the same thing; are you where you should be? Should you be paying for something in Glasgow if you live in London? Maybe, but when you set the areas from which payments can be made, you are removing the majority of the bad guys’ ability to process a fraudulent transaction.
    Yes, there can be privacy issues, but most vendors have dealt with that now.
    o
  2. Device Authentication: Every mobile phone has a serial number, IMEI number, and other built in identifiers. If your device is registered it’s very difficult to use another device to get in the middle. Not impossible, just difficult.
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  3. Application Signing and Authentication: Minimal security in and of itself, but is another security layer which ensures as much as possible that only known good apps are used. Apple and Google have their own ways of doing this for downloads, neither of which is adequate. Ongoing application verification can be relatively useful though.
    o
  4. App Blacklisting / Malware Detection: Very early days yet for mobile devices, but in the same way that operating systems anti-virus vendors have made untold fortunes regurgitating known bad things into signatures, mobile devices will have the ability to blacklist apps that should never be running on devices secure enough to authenticate payments. OS hardening guides (SELinux for example) and version control (Android must be at v4.2 and above for example) are fundamental baselines.
    o
  5. PIN Image ‘Watermarking’: Most internet banking sites now have a facility whereby you can upload a personal image to ensure that your open communication is actually with your bank and not redirected to a bad guy. Mobile devices make this factor possible and can even be configured into the PIN pad image.
    o
  6. Encryption (Packet and Transport Layer): Obvious stuff, and relatively trivial to circumvent when you have access to the base operating system kernel (where all jailbreaks take place), but still a very valid concept, especially when you consider the very clever technology surrounding things like Secure Remote Password protocol (SRP).

​Even today there are more options than this, and even implementing all of them at once is seamless to the end user once they have registered their device​. Any one of these by itself is clearly inadequate, but can you really see a bad guy sitting in Starbucks cracking ALL of these in the few moment it takes you to pay for your coffee?

By their nature, mobile devices will always be insecure and limited (bloated OSs, battery life, delicacy, theft and so on) and cannot be seen as a long term solution in payments the way the credit cards were, but I don’t think anyone can deny that they will replace plastic. Mobile devices will take payments to places credit cards can never reach, and the functionality and distribution of payment innovation through mobile devices will grow exponentially over the next 5 – 10 years, it just needs something to help everyone make that transition;

The software PIN.

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For generations – quite literally – credit cards have ruled the non-cash payments world, but it’s now time to start saying goodbye to the ‘plastic’.

At the time of their introduction (way back in the late 1950’s early 60’s) they were a fantastic innovation, and they have rightly had their decades in the sun. Until now, there has been nothing to replace them, nothing anywhere near as widespread, ubiquitous, incredibly versatile, and still growing as a market.

Now there is.

I am talking of course about the mobile phone, but as I will try to demonstrate here, I’m convinced that this is just a reactive and brief stepping stone, and it will not be 60 more years before that next transition comes about.  Actually, it’s already happening.

The table below represents my thoughts on the next steps, and are not based on anything resembling research, known statistics, and maybe even reality. This is just a visual representation of what I believe;

Screen Shot 2014-03-20 at 10.27.12

Credit Cards – Began way back when, and have enjoyed an enormous growth over the years. However, the up-front nature of the card itself has required a massively expensive infrastructure to accommodate it, leaving half the planet un-covered and un-banked. Beginning this decade we will see a rapid decline in their use as consumer choices expand, and issuer’s profits drop.

Mobile Phone – Enormous and unprecedented growth and owned by more people than any electronic product in history. Anyone who believes that the inherent insecurity and inconvenience of battery life will prevent the transition of payments onto this platform is going to be left behind. Nevertheless, these limitations WILL ensure that the transition to what’s next in payments comes much faster than the move from plastic. Rapid advances in battery technology and OS security will maintain the trend for a few years.

Non-Invasive Biometrics – As I’m calling it, but I basically mean wearables and anything else that comes up that starts doing away with the keyboard and begins the process of identity management through non-static authentication (passwords, secret information), and learning the wearer’s physical profile to effect the majority the functionality. Voice at first I assume.

Invasive Biometrics – Implants in other words. There will be those who say this is a ridiculous concept, that it will never take off, but I believe that the next generations will not see this as outrageous, and WILL see the mobile phone as antiquated and inconvenient. Anyone who has seen the 2012 version of Total Recall and the phone implanted into Colin Farrell’s hand either said “NO WAY!”, or like me said “I WANT ONE!”. Batteries will always be a limitation, but the human body IS a battery (of sorts), and it will be harnessed accordingly (hopefully not like in The Matrix).

Cumulative Identity Profiling – Again, this is what I’m calling it, but it’s basically the culmination of the trend toward a totally different idea of privacy, and one that I cannot see clearly because I’m not of this yet-to-be-born generation. Anyone who is the parent of a teenager knows that their kids have never NOT had a mobile  phone, and that almost their entire life is recorded online. The are never unplugged. We are horrified for them, but that’s our judgement, not theirs, and theirs will win. Identity Management and authentication will be a sum total of your life’s experiences, and therefore almost impossible to fake, or duplicate. The whole concept of privacy will be turned on its head.

There are those who say that this can only happen in industrialised nations, those with the money to afford such things, and yes, there will always be a portion of the population who will be out of the loop for a while. However, Mozilla (for example) are releasing a $25 smartphone, and it is estimated that within a few years Africa with have a 50% smartphone adoption. This trend will cover almost everyone, eventually.

The innovation involved with payments is really at the beginning of its evolution, and I’ll probably look back on this post in 5 years time and laugh at my naivety. Nevertheless, the card brands know its coming (hence NFC, HCE etc.), the terminal manufacturers know its coming (hence the rise of phone based mPOS), and the retailers know its coming (hence the push back on EMV), so the only thing left is for the consumer to start making demands and there will be no looking back.

The average consumer will forgo security for convenience, it will be up to the payments innovators to make sure enough security is built in to protect people from themselves. Which I think is unfortunate, but it’s that or educate 7 billion people.

In the near future, most of us will want to:

  1. be able to walk into the supermarket, collect our stuff, and walk straight out with the payment already processed in the background
  2. receive instant coupons, or 2-for-1 offers, or other value add services WHILE shopping
  3. receive a warning if an item contains something to which we are allergic
  4. receive a reminder from your fridge / freezer / cabinets that you are low on certain products while you are walking down the relevant aisle
  5. …and so on.

However, you cannot have any of these things unless you made the necessary information available to the supermarket chain you are in. And they will not make these things available TO you unless they have good assurance that you, are in fact, you.

To enable just those 4 things listed above, you had to release a significant amount of personal data, all of which can have privacy implications:

  1. requires a number of things – from biometrics (facial recognition for example) to financial account access
  2. requires a comprehensive and always growing record of your choices, preferences, and habits
  3. requires details of certain bits of medical data
  4. requires your entire kitchen / bathroom / bedroom to be enabled for the Internet of Things, as well as a highly detailed geolocation on your whereabouts
  5. …and so on.

Are you OK with that?

I am, but I know many who are not, and I also know that as the generations progress, there will be less and less concern over these ‘conveniences’, as they will have become common place. I will go as far as to say that within the next 10 years, any supermarket NOT providing some of all of these services will not be able to compete, and possibly become Internet-Free corner stores where you’ll find the world’s ‘privacy paranoid’ shopping for their tin-foil helmets and electronic cloaking devices.

The bottom line is that the concept of privacy itself is changing. The generation of kids in secondary schools today has never known life without the Internet, and in most industrialised nations, every kid has a mobile phone. They are always plugged in, always connected, and, as never before, a vast majority of their lives is recorded somewhere online. They are active on social media, SMS, chat, email, and every other technology designed to stay in touch 24/7.

Our idea of privacy is not theirs, and everything from racial prejudice to the stigma attached to nudity will standardise and globalise, and I cannot help but think for the better. Your children’s education will no longer be tied entirely to the doctrines of the previous generations, and self perpetuating ignorance has no place in a time when every piece of knowledge is at your fingertips. Not that this will stop those determined to be an arse.

I’m certainly not talking about some utopia here, ignorance in all its forms will never go away, but if the vast majority of your life is an open and available book, your complete identity becomes an ultimate form of authentication, and the security OF your identity only gets better as your life progresses.

The current ability to authenticate only against static data will no longer suffice (passwords, secret questions etc.), and the coming methods of identity management and authentication will completely change the face of privacy.

I see this as a good thing, but I’ll leave it to the folks hiding away in Faraday cages to make sure that Big Brother doesn’t get everything his way.

 

Why, in the face of threats, do we humans either spend an inordinate amount of time blaming others, or insist on patching the symptoms instead of solving the root cause?

  • Target: I had my credit card data stolen, so let me buy millions of dollars of new PEDs
  • ICO: The NHS lost some data, so let’s fine them.
  • Rest of the World: The NSA is reading our emails, so let’s encrypt them.

Every one of these reactions has completely missed the point, and are the definitive closing the barn door after the horse has bolted.

Question: Do you tell your deepest secrets to your loved ones in a very loud voice in the middle of a room crowded with strangers? Or do you wait until you’re alone, and even then talk quietly just in case?

And yet you think you should have privacy on the Internet?  You could not yell any louder than that. Forget your RIGHT to privacy, focus on YOUR ability to KEEP things private.

Even with encryption, who has the best equipment and expertise; you, or the NSA? Or worse; you, or organised crime? They are extremes, so let’s bring it closer to home; you, or your IT admin? How about; you, or your children?

So now, instead of solving the problem, security vendors are going to inundate you with offers to encrypt your data, encrypt your communications, encrypt your very identity, and they will all fail. 2014 should be the Year of Identity Management & Authentication, or to put it more facetiously; The Year of Only You Being You.

Here’s a ridiculously long and complicated analogy of your identity;

Imagine that you are a 1,000 piece puzzle, and when all of the pieces are together, only then can you see the full picture. As the puzzle is broken up and distributed across many hundreds of separate locations, the picture fades from each piece until it’s just plain white. Anyone stealing even a couple of hundred pieces will never be able to re-create you, never know what the picture is, or even where to find the rest of it.

Now, image that access to your most private information was tied to the complete picture, would that not be infinitely better than a username and password, or a 4 digit PIN?

Your true identity, the everything that is you, is made of things that cannot be put into a mechanism for authentication. Yet all we have right now is 3 factors: something you know (password), something you have (physical token), and something you are (biometrics). What about your likes and dislikes? Your future plans? Your everyday interactions?

All of theses things and infinitely more make up your true identity, and until we can come up with a way to get a whole bunch of them into a practical and seamless method of authentication, your data will be at risk, regardless of encryption. Yes, encryption may add a layer of security, somewhat akin to building your fence higher than your neighbours, but any commercial encryption product that will be pushed for home PC or mobile users will be practically useless.

Instead, privacy will come from the exact same source as identity managements’ will; very wide distribution of data with extremely limited ability to piece it all together. Some may disagree with my previous blog on the benefits of ‘profiling’, but you cannot have a robust identity without it. Bitcoin has proved that you do not need single databases/sources of storage for this stuff, the interconnectivity of the Internet’s individual systems can provide that with the right front end.

So, bottom line; don’t waste your money on expensive encryption solutions unless those solutions are performing the above distribution (bitcloud for example), but then it’s not encryption as we know it, it’s the next generation of privacy.

My rather unusual theory; that too much privacy might actually reduce your security, stems from a few things:

1) Security is all about baselines, and anything that falls outside of those baselines should be prevented, or at least investigated;

2) Everything you do in life is based around one thing; your identity. Relationships, work, and everything you do over the Internet is a direct reflection of all the things that make you, you. It’s the AUTHENTICATION of your identity that enables your everyday actions online. It also exposes your data, and;

3) The one thing that has no place in pro-active security; Big Data, actually has an enormous role to play in your privacy and the security of your identity. Somewhat counterintuitively, it’s the big data that provides the baseline from which your identity can be protected.

Most of us know that your spending patterns are what the banks / card brands use to detect potential fraud, but this data is only a small part of your identity, the sum of which includes (but is not limited to); your location, work history, financial history, family and friends, likes and dislikes, and pretty much everything you’ve ever posted online.

What if your identity could be profiled? Not in the negative way used to profile ‘possible terrorists’, but in a way that prevents someone else from being you. For example:

1) Why would you buy an international airline ticket if you don’t have a passport, or if you have never previously left your own country?;

2) Would someone start posting hate filled messages on FB /Twitter etc. if all they’ve posted previously are funny cat stories?;

3) Would someone change address and order new credit cards if nothing in their ‘profile’ suggested they were moving?;

4) Would someone go on a spending spree, when their ‘profile’ suggests a lifetime of frugality?;

…and so on.

The answer to all of these questions, is maybe, and except for 2., they most certainly should not be stopped from performing these legitimate actions, but there COULD be a greater degree of due diligence on the part of the organisations fulfilling these requests to confirm identity first. This is only possible if they have access to a profile from which to make these necessary decisions.

The profile does not have to contain all of your deepest darkest secrets, but enough of your identity has to be available for organisations to make judgment calls. Yes, this could be used for targeted marketing (not everyone is covered by the GDPR), and yes, bad people will always find ways of using a ‘profile’ for more nefarious reasons, but we already HAVE many forms of profiling that we take for granted; credit scores, CV/resumes, social media content, circle of friends, clubs / associations and so on.

The use of these existing profiles for good and bad is not so much in the individual components, it’s in the whole, and it’s one of the rare instances where the whole is in fact greater than the sum of its parts. However, the more information that’s out there should lead to a safer profile due to numerous overlapping and cross-referenced checks and balances, all of which report back to you.

Of course, there will always be those who instantly assume this will become an Orwellian dystopia and move to a cabin in the woods, and there will be those who see it as a utopia and jump in head first. The answers for the rest of us lie somewhere in-between, and will evolve over time.

This generation is already making it happen in my opinion, with the prevalence of social media entire lives are being documented online, and the apparent lack of common sense when it comes to posting compromising selfies suggests that our idea of what’s ‘private’, is not theirs. What my generation cares about, cannot be forced upon the next, and our values cannot dictate how the next generation leads their lives, but what we CAN do is design an identity framework that turns privacy into what it’s always been; a form of ‘currency’ for which YOU need to take full responsibility.

Spend too much and you’ll have no identity to call your own, spend too little and you’ll be left behind.

What you want, and what we don’t currently have, is a choice.

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