This time last year I wrote Froud on Fraud: Top 5 Predictions for 2016. Unsurprisingly, none of these things has transpired. At least not yet anyway [embarrassed silence].
So why do this again, when it’s fairly clear that any insight I have – if any – is aimed more towards potential long-term trends than to short-term results?
The reason I’m taking another stab is I can’t help feeling that 2017 is going to something of a watershed year for cybersecurity. At least I hope so, because there is so much hype, scaremongering and dross out there that something needs to change. And it must change soon, before cybersecurity professionals get lumped into the same category as the better known examples of sleaze; used car salesmen, estate agents, and lawyers (no offence Sis).
The last few years has been bad for the cybersecurity/privacy profession. From Snowden, to the Snooper’s Charter, from Target to Yahoo there has been no good news. Forget that the press will not print good news if they can possibly help it, things actually are getting worse. State sponsored attacks, organised crime, numerous vulnerabilities in Android and iOS, irresponsible Internet of Things manufacturers, there is little to smile about.
But instead of coming to the rescue, the cybersecurity industry seems Hell-bent on making it worse by cashing in on the confusion. From biometrics vendors disgracefully overstating their worth, to consulting practices doing everything in their power to cross-sell and upsell their wares, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to know where to turn.
The only bright side? Legislation.
Yes, legislation. The Payments Service Directive (PSD2) and the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) – for example – are both designed to start putting things right in payments and data privacy respectively. No one with a vested interest in keeping things the same was ever going to do anything themselves, so now they’ll have to. Banks, large retail, you name it, there will now be a price to pay for how you treat the consumer.
And let’s face it, it’s all about the consumer.
So with the above in mind, these are my predictions for 2017:
- ISO 27001 certification will be increasingly important: Unlike PCI which is entirely prescriptive, no other regulation that I have ever seen requires anything other than ‘appropriate‘ or ‘reasonable‘ security measures. Appropriate and reasonably to whom is always the first question. ISO 27001, and other frameworks like it, perform one overarching function; to provide demonstrable evidence that an organisation is taking security seriously. Whether the organisation is actually taking security seriously is another matter, but it is hard to fake certification. Not impossible mind you, just difficult. ‘Compliance’ with GDPR, and other data privacy regulations globally will look to ISO for help.
- Biometrics vendors will keep pushing their wares, and fail: OK, so this one is more of a wish than a prediction, but I am so sick of the hype around biometrics that I need to vent. Yes, biometrics if very important, yes, it’s better than a password in most scenarios, but it is NOT an answer by itself. Biometrics will not replace the password, nor will it ever be a solution all by itself. It will do what every other form of authentication should do; take its rightful place in the arsenal of identity management systems.
- Amazon GO will be the new model for brick & mortar: Any brick and mortar retailer not terrified by the opening of the Amazon GO store in Seattle is completely missing the point. The point is that consumers don’t care how they PAY, they care how they BUY. Cash, credit cards, even the Apple Pays and their ilk are just forms of payment, they are not relevant to how we choose the products and services we actually BUY. We demand a lot more from our merchants than a glorified cash register. In Invisible Payments, Are They Real? (Aug ’15) I went a little further than Amazon did, and will go even further in a week or so. And while I don’t expect 2017 to see a sharp increase in GO-esque stores, it’s definitely a glimpse of the near future.
- Containerised Security Services: Anyone who has looked to Amazon Web Services or Azure for hosting their e-commerce systems often do so in order to outsource security as well. The fact that neither of these services provide much is often a nasty surprise. Yes, the merchants asked the wrong questions (or none at all), but it is incomprehensible to me that vendors like AWM DON’T provide comprehensive security wrappers. 2017 will see an increase in modular and full-service security programs (at least to PCI minimums) from all of the major providers. Hopefully these will be easily understandable and transparent to non-experts, because even the better service providers do a piss-poor job of getting their point across.
- Automated Governance, Risk & Compliance: GRC is a fantastic concept, implemented poorly. However, with the ever increasing regulatory landscape, larger organisations simply can’t keep up with the audit ommitments. GRC tools have traditionally been mostly manual in nature, which explains their lack of adoption. More and more GRC vendors are looking to automate compliance baseline input by providing APIs to end-point vendors (A/V, SIEM, vulnerability scanning etc) for automated input of production system data. 2017 will see GRC vendors finally focusing on the only thing that makes sense; asset management and automated baseline comparisons of known-good profiles.
OK, so 5. is a bit of a stretch, but there’s no way my OCD would allow for only 4 predictions.
What are your predictions?
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